"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you intend to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the second game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the second game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If win55 in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the second team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to avoid the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it does have the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that next time someone lets you know that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of which you have no other choice is if you're the very best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux which means you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an excellent substitute for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the next bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or higher comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, when you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out from the two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at the very least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."