There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. A lot of table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps which can be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. This is due to most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will assist you in the long run. First of Debet89 , the very best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. The difference between the house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points lower than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.